Trade Reactions, Part Three

Date: Sun, Aug 1, 2010

More photos » Andy King - AP

2 days ago: Minnesota Twins relief pitcher Matt Capps pumps his fist after recording his first save as a Twin as the Twins defeated Seattle Mariners 5-3 in their baseball game Friday, July 30, 2010 in Minneapolis.(AP Photo/Andy King)

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The Rangers picked up Jorge Cantu from the Marlins for minor leaguers Evan Reed and Omar Poveda. Cantu is no star but his power and versatility are useful, and he's a nice pickup for Texas in exchange for a couple of Grade C/C+ pitching arms. Reed looks like he could be a useful middle reliever eventually, but we have to see how well Poveda comes back from Tommy John. I have no problem with this trade from the perspective of either team.

The Padres picked up Miguel Tejada from the Orioles for Wynn Pelzer. I know the Padres were looking for some veteran offensive help, but Tejada looks like he's aging pretty rapidly to me, and I've liked Pelzer for a while. He has to get his command back in gear and has been erratic in Double-A, but he's got plus stuff and I still like him intuitively. I think this is a nice pickup by Baltimore, and I don't think I would have done this if I was San Diego.

The Twins traded Wilson Ramos and Joe Testa to the Nationals for Matt Capps. Capps reinforces the Twins bullpen for the stretch run. Testa isn't a prospect, but Ramos definitely is. I have some misgivings about his bat due to his sketchy plate discipline, but his glove has really come around and his power potential remains impressive. I like him, but not enough to pan the trade from Minnesota's point of view; I think it is fair for both teams. In my Shadow Twins universe, I will make this trade.

More to come.

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Trade Reactions, Part Two

Date: Sun, Aug 1, 2010

More photos » J. Meric - Getty Images

Designated hitter Lance Berkman of the New York Yankees waits to bat against the Tampa Bay Rays during the game at Tropicana Field on July 31 2010 in St. Petersburg Florida. (Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images)

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Johnny Peralta from the Indians to the Tigers for LHP Giovanni Soto. Soto is an interesting sleeper prospect, who doesn't throw hard but is projectable and has a good statistical set this year in the Midwest League. Peralta had little additional value for the Indians, but is a nice asset for a contending team like the Tigers. I think this is a fair value for both clubs.

Scott Podsednik from Kansas City to Los Angeles for Lucas May and Elisaul Pimentel. I'm not wild about Lucas May, I don't think he'll hit or field enough to be especially useful for the Royals except as a marginal reserve. Pimentel has a live arm with fairly good results in the Midwest League at age 22. I'd rate both of them as Grade C prospects at this point, but at least they add some additional depth to the system, and it's not like Pods was part of the wave of the future in KC. It is a decent deal for both teams I think.

Roy Oswalt to the Phillies for J.A. Happ, Anthony Gose, and Jonathan Villar, then Gose on to Toronto for Brett Wallace. I've always loved Roy Oswalt, but the Astros needed to close the door on the Oswalt/Berkman Era and move forward. Happ has been crap this year, but if his elbow gets back to normal and he returns close to his 2009 level of performance next year, the difference between him and Roy isn't that great. Add in a new first baseman in Brett Wallace, and the deal makes a lot of sense. I'm not a huge Gose guy; I respect his tools and speed, but he's still very raw, and the Astros already have guys like that in the system, so swapping him to Toronto for the almost-ready Wallace also makes sense. Villar is an interesting risk/reward prospect; he'll probably bust, but if he doesn't he could be quite good. Overall I think the Astros did well here.

Lance Berkman to the Yankees for Jimmy Paredes and Mark Melancon. This haul isn't as impressive as what they got for Oswalt, but if you look at it within the context of their other moves, it is a fair exchange of talent, with Wallace replacing Berkman in the future lineup and some additional talent brought onto the pitching staff and system depth. Paredes is toolsy but raw (like Villar), while Melancon should be able to help in the pen soon.


More to come.

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Trade Reactions, Part One

Date: Sun, Aug 1, 2010

More photos » Alex Gallardo - AP

6 days ago: Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Dan Haren (24) reacts after striking out the Boston Red Sox David Ortiz to end the first inning in their baseball game Monday, July 26, 2010, in Anaheim, Calif. (AP Photo/Alex Gallardo)

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Quick Impressions of the Deadline Deals

Here are some quick, rapid-fire impressions of the deadline deals.

Alberto Callaspo for Sean O'Sullivan and Will Smith: Callaspo was excess in Kansas City and in exchange the Royals picked up a couple of Grade C/C+ type pitchers. Seems OK to me for both teams, Callaspo helping the Angels out at third base, while the Royals add some pitching depth for their youth movement.

The Dan Haren Trade: Haren to Los Angeles, with Pat Corbin, Rafael Rodriguez, and Joe Saunders going to Arizona. On first blush, I thought the Diamondbacks could get more for Haren. Saunders is OK as an inning eater but hardly a huge talent, and at age 29 that's not likely to change. Rodriguez looks like a fair relief spare part. Corbin is something like a younger version of Saunders, as a finesse lefty with inning-eating potential if he can add some strength to his frame. The PTBN is rumored to be Tyler Skaggs, who would be the best talent of the prospects involved and would make this package look better. Overall I like the deal from the Angels perspective. It would work out OK for Arizona too if Corbin and Skaggs develop properly.

More to come

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Sunday Morning Update

Date: Sun, Aug 1, 2010

I'm on child care duty full-time today.

Tonight I will work on a trade deadline reaction piece for you. Starting tomorrow I will work on the Pre-Season Top 20 Prospects in Review lists, beginning with the Minnesota Twins, followed by the Atlanta Braves, then Kansas City Royals. That will be the main focus in August as a good way to wrap up the minor league season.

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Trade Deadline

Date: Sat, Jul 31, 2010

Use this thread to discuss the trade deadline deals. I'm doing analysis of this for Rotowire, but tomorrow I will have a piece here with my personal reaction to each deal. Right now the one that stands out as questionable to meis the White Sox picking up Edwin Jackson for Dan Hudson and David Holmberg...I'm not convinced thatJackson willbe any better than Dan Hudson would have been down the stretch.

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Minor League Notes, July 30, 2010

Date: Fri, Jul 30, 2010

Minor League Notes, July 30, 2010

**The Brewers promoted Jeremy "Cheech" Jeffress to Double-A Huntsville and he got into his first game yesterday, throwing a scoreless inning against Mississippi with one strikeout. Before moving up, he'd thrown 10 innings for Brevard County with eight runs allowed, 14 strikeouts, and seven walks. He'd started the season at Wisconsin where he threw eight scoreless relief innings with a 14/3 K/BB and zero hits allowed. Reports indicate that he had his blistering stuff back just fine, so once again it boils down to control on the mound and self-control off it. I think keeping him relief is a good idea; it (in theory) will force him to focus and be prepared for each game.

**Oakland Athletics lefty prospect Ian Krol has sagged a bit in recent outings for Low-A Kane County in the Midwest League, with a 4.65 ERA in his last six starts. His K/BB is good at 19/4 in 31 innings, but his strikeout rate has been slowly declining as the season is progressing, possibly a sign of some fatigue. His overall numbers remain strong at 2.74 ERA, 71/17 K/BB in 99 innings, 79 hits allowed. Midwest League sources have a favorable impression of his talent, pointing to sharp command of both his curveball and changeup. His fastball ranges between 87 and 92 MPH. Overall he's had a good season as a 19 year old, and still projects as a possible number three or four starter down the line.

**Blue Jays prospect Eric Thames is on another tear at Double-A New Hampshire, hitting .333/.433/.784 in his last 14 games. On the season, he's hitting .285/.368/.531 with 21 homers, 41 walks, and 89 strikeouts in 382 at-bats, with the best news being that he's stayed healthy this year after two years of hip and quadriceps injuries. He has decent plate discipline and has unleashed his power this year, and reports I have about his swing and hitting approach are positive, but there are still some oddities in his numbers. He has a sharp home/road split, at least in terms of batting average; .339/.410/.600 at home, .238/.332/.470 on the road, though the home run totals are split evenly (11 at home, 10 on road). He has serious problems against lefties (.217/.301/.387), but destroys right-handed pitching (.312/.394/.587). He's an adequate defender in left field. All told, I like Thames but see him more likely as a strong future platoon bat than a complete regular.

**Drafted by the Rockies in the first round last year out of Sacramento State, outfielder Tim Wheeler has had a so-so season for Modesto in the California League. His overall line isn't too impressive considering the league context: .253/.350/.390. On the positive side, he has a good walk rate with 49 free passes in 387 at-bats, and he's fairly efficient at stealing bases with 18 in 25 attempts. His defense in center field is solid, but I don't think his overall skills are good enough to play regularly in the majors unless his bat takes a step forward. His overall line is very similar to what he did in short-season ball (.256/.332/.381), not much growth there. Theworry with Wheeler in college was that he would end up as a "tweener" type, and so far he hasn't done anything in pro ball to assuage that concern. Since he has good command of the strike zone, a breakout at some point in the next year or two is plausible. But I don't think it is likely, and this just may be the kind of player that he is, which would make him a future reserve.

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Prospect Smackdown: Dustin Ackley vs. Brett Lawrie

Date: Fri, Jul 30, 2010

Prospect Smackdown: Dustin Ackley vs. Brett Lawrie

Earlier this month we did a poll question on two second base prospects, Dustin Ackley of Seattle and Brett Lawrie of Milwaukee.

This resulted in spirited (and informative) debate in the comments section. The poll itself was incredibly close: out of 1004 votes cast, 506 went to Lawrie (50.4 percent) and 498 went to Ackley (49.6%). I can't think of a previous Minor League Ball poll that came out so close, with that many votes.

Several readers have asked me who I preferred myself, so this seems like a good thing to hash out in a Prospect Smackdown.

Background and Intangibles.

Ackley: Although he was known to scouts, Dustin Ackley was undrafted out of high school in Winston-Salem, North Carolina in 2006 due to injuries and positional concerns. He ended up on campus at Chapel Hill, seizing control of a starting job as a freshman in 2007 and never looking back. His college performance was outstanding: .402/.448/.591 in '07, .417/.503/.597 in '08, then .417/.517/.763 with 22 homers in '09. He was ACC Player of the Year and rated as the best pure hitter in the '09 draft by most experts, going second overall. His work ethic and personality are well-regarded.

Lawrie: Lawrie hails from Langley in British Columbia, but he was head-and-shoulders above other Canadian high school hitters, playing for the Olympic Team as a high school senior in 2008. He thrived on the showcase and touring circuits, demonstrating excellent potential with a wooden bat and earning a scholarship to Arizona State. The Brewers drafted him in the first round in '08, 16^th overall, buying him out of college. Lawrie has a reputation as a hard worker as a hitter, but is also something of a mercurial personality, once described to me by a scout as an "intense red-ass player." He didn't show much interest in defense as an amateur.

Comparison: Sort of an apples/oranges thing here, given the difference in age and backgrounds, Ackley's college breakthrough against Lawrie's superior performance as a high school player despite his Canadian background. Ackley is a more mature personality at this point, and I'll give him a slight edge here, although I don't think there is anything wrong with Lawrie that growing older won't fix.

Physicality, Health, and Tools

Ackley: Ackley is a 6-1, 185 pound left-handed hitter and right-handed thrower, born February 26, 1988. His best physical tool is above average speed; his overall athleticism is also above average, although he doesn't have huge raw power. His hand-eye coordination is considered exceptional. Ackley had Tommy John surgery as after his sophomore year in college, and while it didn't keep him off the field much as a junior, his throwing arm is now below average and isn't expected to improve much.

Lawrie: Lawrie is a 6-0, 213 pound right-handed hitter and thrower, born January 18, 1990. Although he has a short/strong body type, he is actually a good athlete with slightly above average running speed and a finethrowing arm. His legs look a bit thick visually and some scouts expect he'll lose speed as he gets older. He is physically stronger than Ackley and has more raw power. His hand-eye coordination is excellent and he has terrific bat speed. He has had no significant injury problems.

Comparison: Ackley looks more athletic to the naked eye, but Lawrie is no slouch himself, has more strength, is younger, and has a better health record. I'll call this one even.

Performance and Polish

Ackley: Ackley is considered extremely polished as a hitter, with excellent contact ability and very good plate discipline. He got off to a slow start in April, hitting just .147/.289/.227 for Double-A West Tennessee, but has hit well since then, (.922 OPS in May, .838 in June) and earned a promotion to Triple-A this month, very impressive just one year out of college. On the season he's hitting .266/.383/.388 with 59 walks and 50 strikeouts in 407 plate appearances. The BB/K ratio is very sharp and augers well for his future, and he's shown gap power. He's hit just three homers, however, and while he's been efficient as a stealer (8-for-10), he hasn't been especially aggressive. A first baseman and outfielder in college, he's learning second base this year with mixed results. Given his lack of experience, his error rate isn't bad (.961 fielding percentage), but his range factors were below average for the Southern League, granted minor league defensive stats aren't that reliable. Scouts indicate that his defense is decent considering his lack of experience, and should continue to improve in time. He's working hard at it.

Lawrie: Lawrie hit .274/.348/.454 last year in the Midwest League and is at .287/.350/.453 in the Southern League this year, quite impressive for a 20-year-old. He's streaky and needs some additional polish with his plate discipline, but his explosive bat speed has held up well against older competition. He's hit just six homers after knocking 13 last year, but with 24 doubles and 13 triples to his credit, scouts expect more homers will come in time. He's swiped 27 bases but has been caught 12 times. On defense, Lawrie doesn't look like a second baseman physically, and many scouts still think he'll end up as a right fielder, not liking his footwork. But his defensive stats aren't bad; his fielding percentage is OK and his range factors are actually above average for the Southern League.

Comparison: From a scouting perspective, Ackley is a more polished hitter at this point in terms of plate discipline and feel for the zone. Lawrie has more present distance power, and his overall numbers this year were better at the same league and level. Ackley has a much superior BB/K/PA ratio, however. Ackley currently gets better defensive reviews on tools, but Lawrie's performance metrics are superior with the glove, granted the uncertainties involved with measuring defense. You can cut Ackley some slack on his slow start given that he was jumping from college ball and learning a new position. But Lawrie also deserves some slack since he's just 20 and in Double-A. I'm going with an extremely slight edge to Lawrie here, but it is really close.

Projection

Ackley: Scouts see Ackley as a future .300+ hitter with a high walk rate/OBP, 20+ stolen bases, and the kind of player who can win batting championships. Even if second base doesn't pan out, he would still be a mainstay at the top of a major league lineup.

Lawrie: Scouts see Lawrie as a potential 25 home run hitter as he matures, with some stolen bases (at least when younger) and a decent batting average and OBP. If he fully maximizes his potential, he has enough bat speed and pop to be a .300, 30-homer hitter at the highest upside. If he stays at second base and provides that sort of hitting, he'll be outstanding; if he moves to the outfield, he would still be very valuable.

Comparison: Both of these players have the natural ability to be All-Stars, although the shape of their success will likely be different, Lawrie providing more power/middle of the order productionand Ackley providing more pure hitting. Lawrie is two years younger and has more projection in the classic sense, being in a better spot on the age curve, but there is also more uncertainty about how he will develop. I will call this one even, too.

Summary

You can see why the poll results were so close. I give Ackley a slight edge on background/intangibles, call it even on physicality/tools, give Lawrie a slight edge on current performance, and call it even on future projection. If someone put a gun to my head and I had to pick one, today I would go with Lawrie since he is younger. But tomorrow I might pick Ackley.

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Schedule

Date: Thu, Jul 29, 2010

Tomorrow I will have a Prospect Smackdown for you and more minor league notes. We will begin the Top 20 prospect reviews on Monday.

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Rookie Profile: Domonic Brown

Date: Thu, Jul 29, 2010

More photos » H. Rumph Jr - AP

1 day ago: Philadelphia Phillies' Domonic Brown swings on an RBI double against the Arizona Diamondbacks in the second inning of a baseball game Wednesday, July 28, 2010, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/H. Rumph Jr)

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Rookie Profile: Domonic Brown

With his recent promotion to the majors, this seems like a good time for a look at Phillies outfielder Domonic Brown, a textbook example of how teams try (and sometimes succeed) in turning a raw athlete into a baseball player.

Domonic Brown was drafted by the Philadelphia Phillies in the 20^th round of the 2006 draft, from high school in Redan, Georgia. On tools alone he could have gone in the first five rounds, but he played a lot of football in high school and was also a pitcher; scouts weren't sure if he'd play football, or if he wanted to pitch or hit if he did choose the diamond. He turned down a football scholarship to the University of Miami and signed with the Phillies for $200,000. Sent to the Gulf Coast League, he hit just .214/.292/.265 in 34 games. He did manage 13 steals and impressed scouts with his athleticism, but his approach at the plate was raw. I didn't put him in the 2007 book but would have given him a Grade C "with higher potential" if I had.

Promoted to the New York-Penn League for 2007, Brown hit .295/.356/.400 with 14 steals, 27 walks, and 49 strikeouts in 285 at-bats. He got into three games for High-A Clearwater as well, going 4-for-9 with a homer and two walks. Scouting reports continued to praise his athleticism. There was some concern about awkward swing mechanics, but his strike zone judgment wasn't bad, and he'd improved his approach since rookie ball. I gave him a Grade C in the 2008 book, writing that he was "risky but with a high ceiling" and that there was hope for his bat.

Moved up to Low-A Lakewood for 2008, Brown continued to make steady progress, hitting .291/.382/.417 with 22 steals, 64 walks, and 72 strikeouts in 444 at-bats. His power production improved slightly, but his strike zone judgment took a huge step forward, his walk rate doubling without a big increase in whiffs. Scouting reports pointed to progress with his swing although it needed to be tweaked to get more power. He also showed off a good throwing arm and increasing polish as a defensive player. Impressed with the improved plate discipline, in the 2009 book I wrote that Brown "looks like he's figured some things out" and that the next step would be "converting more of his physical strength into field power." I gave him a Grade B-.

A broken finger cost Brown a month of playing time in 2009, but he got through it and had a breakout campaign, hitting .303/.386/.517 in 66 contests for Clearwater in the Florida State League, then .279/.346/.456 in 37 games for Double-A Reading. He swiped 23 bases and continued to show good plate discipline, although late in the season (and in the Arizona Fall League) he looked tired and his swing deteriorated. Despite that, I gave him a Grade B+ in the book this year, writing that he's "an absolute Five Tool talent and his Seven Skills are developing quite nicely." He ranked number 11 on my preseason Top 50 hitters list.

In the book this year I recommended that the Phillies start Brown in Double-A to begin '10, promote him to Triple-A in late June if he played well, then put him in line for a September callup. That's exactly what they did, and he's consolidated his '09 breakthrough with an even better '10: .318/.391/.602 at Reading, .346/.390/.561 at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, and now a promotion to the majors since he played even better than anticipated.

Brown still has some work to do: his plate discipline isn't perfect, and he still sometimes loses the smoothness with his swing. But he has made gigantic progress over the last two seasons turning his tools into skills, particularly power development this year. He has everything you look for in a potential star, and while he could probably use additional minor league seasoning (he has just 28 games of Triple-A under his belt), he should be a mainstay of the Phillies lineup for years to come. As with any rookie, he may have some growing pains, but this looks like a successful case of an organization taking a raw athlete and turning him into a strong player.

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Prospect Retro: Aubrey Huff

Date: Thu, Jul 29, 2010

More photos » AP - AP

21 days ago: San Francisco Giants' Aubrey Huff hits a two run home run against the Milwaukee Brewers during the third inning of a baseball game Thursday, July 8, 2010, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo)

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Prospect Retro: Aubrey Huff

More than one reader has asked me for a Prospect Retro for Aubrey Huff over the last few months. I endeavor to please, so here goes.

Aubrey Huff was a fifth round pick by the Tampa Bay Rays in the 1998 draft, from the University of Miami-Florida. He was terrific in college, hitting .412 with 21 homers, 39 walks, and 32 strikeouts in 233 at-bats his junior year. Questions about how he would hit with wood, along with doubts about his defensive position kept him from the earlier rounds despite his excellent college numbers. He continued to crush the ball after signing, hitting .321/.371/.547 in 69 games for Charleston in the South Atlantic League, skipping the short-season levels entirely. Mainly a first baseman in college, he moved over to third base and showed a non-horrible glove. I gave him a Grade B- in the 1999 book, impressed with the early performance but wanting a larger sample size at higher levels.

Moved up to Double-A Orlando for 1999, Huff dominated the Southern League with a .301/.385/.530 mark, 40 doubles, 22 homers, 64 walks, and 77 strikeouts in 491 at-bats. Although he didn't show the best range at third base, he led the league in fielding percentage, showing he could at least avoid making too many mistakes. I gave him a Grade B in the 2000 book, which in retrospect looks a notch too low, given how well he hit in his Double-A debut.

He continued murdering pitchers in Triple-A in '00, hitting .316/.394/.566 with 36 doubles, 20 homers, 51 walks, and 72 strikeouts in 408 at-bats. He held his own in a major league trial, hitting .287/.318/.443 in 122 at-bats. His defense at third base was rated as marginal by scouts, and by the end of the season there were rumors that he would return to first base, though he was blocked there by Fred McGriff. "I have no doubt that Huff will hit well in the major leagues if he is given the opportunity" I wrote in the '01 book, giving him a Grade B+, ranking him at Number 20 among hitting prospects. I loved the combination of power and a reasonably low strikeout rate.

Huff scuffled as a rookie in 2001, hitting just .248/.288/.372 in 111 games, but he turned that around in '02 with a .313/.364/.520 mark, starting a three-year run as one of the most dangerous hitters in the American League. His bat began to decline in 2006 (hmm) but he's remained a productive hitter, with a secondary peak in 2008 at age 31 (.304/.360/.552, 32 homers, 48 doubles for the Orioles). He was lousy last year, but is back in fine form for 2010 with a +146 OPS for the Giants thus far. That would be the best OPS+ mark in his career if he maintains it. One of the things I've always found intriguing about him is a low strikeout rate for a power hitter; he's never fanned 100 times in a season, and indeed has an excellent 51/48 BB/K so far this year.

Huff came into pro ball as an underrated prospect who deserved to go higher in the draft than he did. He murdered minor league pitching (career mark .311/.383/.537), and his current major league career line of .283/.344/.477 is what you'd expect if you look at his MLEs. He's had a few ups and downs, but overall he became the player the numbers said he would be.

Comparable Players to Aubrey Huff

By Sim Score: Cliff Floyd, Jose Guillen, Geoff Jenkins, Kevin McReynolds, Torii Hunter, Jermaine Dye, Willie Horton, George Hendrick, Rondell White, and Vic Wertz.

By PECOTA Comp: Eddie Robinson, Chris Chambliss, Tino Martinez, Mike Sweeney, David Segui, Hal Morris, Eric Karros, Sid Bream, Joe Collins, and Nick Etten.

Lots of very solid and productive talent on those lists, although short of greatness.

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Minor League Notes, July 28, 2010

Date: Wed, Jul 28, 2010

Minor League Notes, July 28, 2010

**Los Angeles Angels second base prospect Jean Segura has been on a tear at Low-A Cedar Rapids lately, hitting.362/.404/.606 in the month of July. His overall line now stands at .306/.352/.448 with 35 steals in 47 attempts, 30 walks, and 49 strikeouts in 366 at-bats. This is obviously strong performance across the board, keeping in mind that the Midwest League is not an easy place to hit. Segura hit .346/.392/.512 for Orem last year, but that was in the Pioneer League. The fact that he's remained productive in the Midwest circuit is a good sign for his future. Scouting word is that Segura is showing excellent bat speed, and while he's not a walk machine, his feel for the strike zone is solid, he makes contact, and could show more home run power in time. His defense draws mixed reviews from scouts, who pan his range and hands, although his defensive stats are pretty decent and he's not especially error-prone for a 20-year-old middle infielder. He looks like a strong prospect to me, moving from a C+ in the book to at least a B- and probably a straight B currently.

**One Midwest League infielder who didn't make the book is Minnesota Twins prospect James Beresford. An Australian, he hit .289/.342/.313 last year at Beloit in the Midwest League, showing speed and defensive ability, and enough athleticism to interest scouts. But he didn't show any power, with a miniscule ISO, which is why I left him out. Returning to Beloit this year, he's hitting .294/.350/.364 thus far, slightly better than last season, though as a league repeater that should be expected. The lack of power is still his biggest problem as a hitter. On defense, he's competent at shortstop and excellent at second base. His makeup is considered outstanding by Twins officials. He's 21 and needs to start showing more pop next year, but he could have a future as a utility infielder.

**Phillies prospect Trevor May began this year with High-A Clearwater, but was recently demoted down to Lakewood in the Low-A Sally League. In his first five starts for the Blueclaws, he's fanned 42 guys in 29 innings, with 10 walks and a 3.10 ERA. The K/IP is outstanding, no surprise given a fastball that can hit 95 and a power curve. His numbers in the Florida State League were less impressive: 5.01 ERA, 90/61 K/BB in 70 innings. . .the K/IP was still excellent, but the walk rate was much too high. The 20 year old May has a workhorse body at 6-5, 215. I'm a strikeout nut and I love all the Ks he rings up, even with the high walk rate I think he has huge potential going forward. I had him as a B- in the book and that still seems a fair grade given his command issues. I regard him as a breakout candidate for next year.

**After numerous injury related delays, San Diego Padres 2009 first round pick Donavan Tate is finally playing regularly again in the Arizona Rookie League, with mixed results: .232/.357/.377 in 19 games, with 13 walks, 33 strikeouts in 69 at-bats, and six steals in seven attempts. The good: he's trying to work the count and is drawing a good number of walks. He's using his speed very well on the bases. Scouts continue to praise his tools and athleticism. But there's one huge negative: his strikeout rate is beyond worrisome, fanning in almost 40% of his plate appearances. That's unacceptable at any level, but it is especially bothersome for a 19 year old in rookie ball with his pedigree. Given the sample size there is no reason to panic at this point, but concern is valid, and the pre'09 draft scouting reports about Tate's bat needing a lot of work were true.

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Rookie Review: Jon Jay, OF, St. Louis Cardinals

Date: Wed, Jul 28, 2010

More photos » David Zalubowski - AP

21 days ago: St. Louis Cardinals' Jon Jay follows the flight of his solo home run against the Colorado Rockies in the fifth inning of a baseball game in Denver on Wednesday, July 7, 2010. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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Rookie Profile: Jon Jay

Here is a profile of St. Louis Cardinals rookie outfielder Jon Jay, currently hitting .387/.437/.624 in 44 games for the Cardinals.

Jon Jay was drafted by the Cardinals in the second round of the 2006 draft, from the University of Miami-Florida. He hit well in college against good competition (.361/.490/.520 his junior year with 31 steals), but scouts doubted his power with wooden bats and had some questions about his swing mechanics. That was enough to keep him out of the first round. He was sent directly to Quad Cities in the Midwest League to begin his career, skipping the short-season levels, and raked from the start, hitting .342/.416/.462 with a 28/27 BB/K in 234 at-bats. I saw him play for the River Bandits and was very impressed with his feel for the strike zone. I also felt he had more power in the bat than most people thought, and gave him a Grade B in the 2007 book.

Injuries attacked in 2007: he was hampered by wrist and shoulder injuries all season and looked like a player in a great deal of pain most of the time. He hit .286/.321/.397 in 32 games for High-A Palm Beach, and just .235/.333/.373 in 26 games for Double-A Springfield. I saw him play at the latter level and he just didn't look right; his bat was slower and he was having some problems turning on pitches. I gave him a partial injury mulligan, lowering his rating to a Grade C+ but writing that if he was healthy he could rebound strongly.

Jay was healthy in 2008 and played 96 games for Springfield, hitting .306/.379/.457 with a 39/46 BB/K in 372 at-bats, with 11 homers. He looked great in a late Triple-A trial, hitting .345/.406/.500 in 16 contests. He had the zip in his bat back, was starting to show more distance power, and still had the refined approach. I also felt his defense was underrated. HIs arm wasn't great, but he had good running speed and seemed to track balls very well. I gave him a Grade B-, writing that "at worst he's a solid fourth outfielder" but that he could start for some teams.

Jay played 2009 with Triple-A Memphis, hitting .281/.338/.394, with 20 steals, 34 walks, and 64 strikeouts in 505 at-bats. This was OK but not great performance; he did manage 10 homers, but with a SLG below .400 he looked very much like a "tweener" type. I was starting to lose some of my enthusiasm, but still gave him a positive review in the book this year. "He makes contact, will surprise you with his power, can bunt if you need him to, can steal a base, is fundamentally sound in most respects, and is an underrated and effective defensive outfielder. . .he always seems to go 3-for-4 when I see him play." I gave him another C+, projecting that he'd be a fine fourth outfielder once he got a chance.

He hit .321/.394/.491 in 42 games for Memphis this spring, and as stated he's at .387/.437/.624 so far for the Cardinals. I don't think that will last; I think he's been lucky so far, but I still like him. I see him as a guy who is "programmed" if you will as a .275-.295 hitter, with a decent walk rate and sparks of power. In a "lucky" year he can hit over .300; in an unlucky year he'd hit .260. Overall I think he will have a long career, as a fourth outfielder and occasional starter. If he has a power spike in his late 20s, he could end up better than that, perhaps something like Mike Greenwell statistically.

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Not a Rookie: Manny Parra

Date: Tue, Jul 27, 2010

More photos » Morry Gash - AP

Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Manny Parra (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

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By reader request, let's take a look at Manny Parra.


Not a Rookie: Manny Parra

Three years ago, I thought Milwaukee Brewers lefty Manny Parra had a good chance to be an very effective, even excellent, major league pitcher. He did have a decent rookie season in 2008, but his '09 season was a disaster and 2010 hasn't been great either. What is going on here, and does he have a chance to fulfill his original potential?

Manny Parra was drafted by the Milwaukee Brewers in the 26^th round in 2001, out of American River Junior College in California. He signed as a draft-and-follow in the spring of '02, then went to Ogden in the Pioneer League and posted a 51/10 K/BB with a 3.21 ERA in 48 innings, though he did allow 59 hits. The high hit rate was notable because he threw 92-95 MPH, and his curveball and slider were both rated as plus pitches. Combine that with good control, and there was no obvious reason for him to give up that many hits. I felt it was a small sample fluke, and gave him a Grade C+ in the 2003 book, writing that Parra "could be one of the big names in A-ball in 2003."

Development of his changeup pushed Parra to greater success in 2003: 11-2, 2.73 ERA with a 117/24 K/BB in 139 innings for Low-A Beloit, 127 hits allowed. His K/BB ratio was outstanding, while his K/IP and H/IP were safely better than average for the Midwest League context. He missed the last three weeks of the season with a "tired arm," but it wasn't expected to be a major problem. I gave him a Grade B+ in the '04 book, and rated him as the Number 23 pitching prospect in baseball.

Parra moved up to the pitching hellhole of High Desert in 2004. The bad news: shoulder soreness limited him to just 67 innings pitched. The good news: he pitched well in those 67 innings, posting a 3.48 ERA with a 64/19 K/BB, excellent numbers for High Desert. I was impressed with this and scouting reports remained very positive, 90-94 MPH, plus curveball, decent slider, decent changeup, good command. I lowered his rating slightly to a Grade B in the '05 book, writing "where there is sore shoulder smoke, there is often torn labrum fire."

Parra reported to Double-A Huntsville to begin 2005. He posted a 3.96 ERA with a 86/21 K/BB in 91 innings, but gave up 111 hits and showed reduced velocity, down to 88-90 MPH. His shoulder began bugging him again and he ended up having surgery to repair a frayed labrum. I gave him a Grade C+ in the '06 book, "with higher upside if his arm is OK." Post-surgery reports were positive, but I wanted to see the proof.

Following rehab, Parra went to Brevard County in the Florida State League to begin 2006, posting a 2.96 ERA with a 61/32 K/BB in 55 innings, 47 hits. He moved back up to Huntsville for six starts and performed quite well: 2.87 ERA, 29/8 K/BB in 31 innings, 26 hits. He showed no diminution in command, but his fastball was still just 88-90 MPH for most of the season. He added a splitter to give the hitters another look to go with the curveball and changeup, dropping the slider. I kept him at a Grade C+ in the 2007 book due to the diminished velocity, but wrote that "if he can stay healthy he may surprise us."

He did, and he did. Parra got his velocity back in 2007, hitting 93-94 MPH again while maintaining his secondary pitches and command. This resulted in a 2.68 ERA with a 81/26 K/BB in 81 innings for Huntsville, then a 1.73 ERA with a 25/7 K/BB in 26 innings for Triple-A Nashville. He looked good in late season action with the Brewers, posting a 3.76 ERA with a 26/12 K/BB in 26 innings, allowing 25 hits. I gave him a Grade B+ in the 2008 book, stating he was a darkhorse Rookie of the Year candidate. I ranked him Number 14 on the pitching prospect list.

As you know, Parra had a decent rookie season, going 10-8, 4.39 in 166 innings with a 147/75 K/BB, but giving up 181 hits. In 2009 he somehow went 11-11 but with a 6.36 ERA, 179 hits in 140 innings, and a ERA+ of 63. Both his strikeout and walk ratios slipped, down to 116/77. This year he has been almost exactly mid-way between his '08 and '09 numbers: 5.33 ERA, 79/38 K/BB in 81 innings, 100 hits, with an increasing strikeout rate at least. He now has a career ERA of 5.20 in 413 innings, allowing 485 hits with a 368/202 K/BB and an ERA+ of 79. Hardly what was expected.

So what's going on? He's still throwing 90-95 MPH, so it is not a problem with velocity. He has a wide arsenal of pitches, still using a curveball, changeup, splitter, and slider once again, although he's not using the slider nearly as often this season and is relying more on the splitter. The ERAs and hit rates have been ugly, although his FIP and xFIP marks have been much better at 4.41 and 4.21 in his career.

This Fangraphs article from Dave Golebiewski was written in December and thus does not include 2010 data, but it is still interesting, using Pitch F/X to explore the theory of scouts that Parra throws too many "fat" pitches that hitters tee off on.

The theory seems plausible to me. Parra's component ratios indicate a pitcher with greater potential than he's shown so far. If the "fat pitch" theory is accurate, that should be a correctable problem with a better mental approach. A change of scenery to a different organization might help, too. Parra turns 28 in October and seems rather old to be a "breakout" candidate, but I still expect him to have some good seasons eventually.

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Morning Update and Suggestion Thread

Date: Tue, Jul 27, 2010

I will have a Manny Parra piece tonight, Aubrey Huff and minor league notes tomorrow, and a Smackdown on Thursday. Make more suggestions in this thread.

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