Minor League Notes, July 28, 2010

Date: Wed, Jul 28, 2010

Minor League Notes, July 28, 2010

**Los Angeles Angels second base prospect Jean Segura has been on a tear at Low-A Cedar Rapids lately, hitting.362/.404/.606 in the month of July. His overall line now stands at .306/.352/.448 with 35 steals in 47 attempts, 30 walks, and 49 strikeouts in 366 at-bats. This is obviously strong performance across the board, keeping in mind that the Midwest League is not an easy place to hit. Segura hit .346/.392/.512 for Orem last year, but that was in the Pioneer League. The fact that he's remained productive in the Midwest circuit is a good sign for his future. Scouting word is that Segura is showing excellent bat speed, and while he's not a walk machine, his feel for the strike zone is solid, he makes contact, and could show more home run power in time. His defense draws mixed reviews from scouts, who pan his range and hands, although his defensive stats are pretty decent and he's not especially error-prone for a 20-year-old middle infielder. He looks like a strong prospect to me, moving from a C+ in the book to at least a B- and probably a straight B currently.

**One Midwest League infielder who didn't make the book is Minnesota Twins prospect James Beresford. An Australian, he hit .289/.342/.313 last year at Beloit in the Midwest League, showing speed and defensive ability, and enough athleticism to interest scouts. But he didn't show any power, with a miniscule ISO, which is why I left him out. Returning to Beloit this year, he's hitting .294/.350/.364 thus far, slightly better than last season, though as a league repeater that should be expected. The lack of power is still his biggest problem as a hitter. On defense, he's competent at shortstop and excellent at second base. His makeup is considered outstanding by Twins officials. He's 21 and needs to start showing more pop next year, but he could have a future as a utility infielder.

**Phillies prospect Trevor May began this year with High-A Clearwater, but was recently demoted down to Lakewood in the Low-A Sally League. In his first five starts for the Blueclaws, he's fanned 42 guys in 29 innings, with 10 walks and a 3.10 ERA. The K/IP is outstanding, no surprise given a fastball that can hit 95 and a power curve. His numbers in the Florida State League were less impressive: 5.01 ERA, 90/61 K/BB in 70 innings. . .the K/IP was still excellent, but the walk rate was much too high. The 20 year old May has a workhorse body at 6-5, 215. I'm a strikeout nut and I love all the Ks he rings up, even with the high walk rate I think he has huge potential going forward. I had him as a B- in the book and that still seems a fair grade given his command issues. I regard him as a breakout candidate for next year.

**After numerous injury related delays, San Diego Padres 2009 first round pick Donavan Tate is finally playing regularly again in the Arizona Rookie League, with mixed results: .232/.357/.377 in 19 games, with 13 walks, 33 strikeouts in 69 at-bats, and six steals in seven attempts. The good: he's trying to work the count and is drawing a good number of walks. He's using his speed very well on the bases. Scouts continue to praise his tools and athleticism. But there's one huge negative: his strikeout rate is beyond worrisome, fanning in almost 40% of his plate appearances. That's unacceptable at any level, but it is especially bothersome for a 19 year old in rookie ball with his pedigree. Given the sample size there is no reason to panic at this point, but concern is valid, and the pre'09 draft scouting reports about Tate's bat needing a lot of work were true.

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Rookie Review: Jon Jay, OF, St. Louis Cardinals

Date: Wed, Jul 28, 2010

More photos » David Zalubowski - AP

21 days ago: St. Louis Cardinals' Jon Jay follows the flight of his solo home run against the Colorado Rockies in the fifth inning of a baseball game in Denver on Wednesday, July 7, 2010. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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Rookie Profile: Jon Jay

Here is a profile of St. Louis Cardinals rookie outfielder Jon Jay, currently hitting .387/.437/.624 in 44 games for the Cardinals.

Jon Jay was drafted by the Cardinals in the second round of the 2006 draft, from the University of Miami-Florida. He hit well in college against good competition (.361/.490/.520 his junior year with 31 steals), but scouts doubted his power with wooden bats and had some questions about his swing mechanics. That was enough to keep him out of the first round. He was sent directly to Quad Cities in the Midwest League to begin his career, skipping the short-season levels, and raked from the start, hitting .342/.416/.462 with a 28/27 BB/K in 234 at-bats. I saw him play for the River Bandits and was very impressed with his feel for the strike zone. I also felt he had more power in the bat than most people thought, and gave him a Grade B in the 2007 book.

Injuries attacked in 2007: he was hampered by wrist and shoulder injuries all season and looked like a player in a great deal of pain most of the time. He hit .286/.321/.397 in 32 games for High-A Palm Beach, and just .235/.333/.373 in 26 games for Double-A Springfield. I saw him play at the latter level and he just didn't look right; his bat was slower and he was having some problems turning on pitches. I gave him a partial injury mulligan, lowering his rating to a Grade C+ but writing that if he was healthy he could rebound strongly.

Jay was healthy in 2008 and played 96 games for Springfield, hitting .306/.379/.457 with a 39/46 BB/K in 372 at-bats, with 11 homers. He looked great in a late Triple-A trial, hitting .345/.406/.500 in 16 contests. He had the zip in his bat back, was starting to show more distance power, and still had the refined approach. I also felt his defense was underrated. HIs arm wasn't great, but he had good running speed and seemed to track balls very well. I gave him a Grade B-, writing that "at worst he's a solid fourth outfielder" but that he could start for some teams.

Jay played 2009 with Triple-A Memphis, hitting .281/.338/.394, with 20 steals, 34 walks, and 64 strikeouts in 505 at-bats. This was OK but not great performance; he did manage 10 homers, but with a SLG below .400 he looked very much like a "tweener" type. I was starting to lose some of my enthusiasm, but still gave him a positive review in the book this year. "He makes contact, will surprise you with his power, can bunt if you need him to, can steal a base, is fundamentally sound in most respects, and is an underrated and effective defensive outfielder. . .he always seems to go 3-for-4 when I see him play." I gave him another C+, projecting that he'd be a fine fourth outfielder once he got a chance.

He hit .321/.394/.491 in 42 games for Memphis this spring, and as stated he's at .387/.437/.624 so far for the Cardinals. I don't think that will last; I think he's been lucky so far, but I still like him. I see him as a guy who is "programmed" if you will as a .275-.295 hitter, with a decent walk rate and sparks of power. In a "lucky" year he can hit over .300; in an unlucky year he'd hit .260. Overall I think he will have a long career, as a fourth outfielder and occasional starter. If he has a power spike in his late 20s, he could end up better than that, perhaps something like Mike Greenwell statistically.

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Not a Rookie: Manny Parra

Date: Tue, Jul 27, 2010

More photos » Morry Gash - AP

Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Manny Parra (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

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By reader request, let's take a look at Manny Parra.


Not a Rookie: Manny Parra

Three years ago, I thought Milwaukee Brewers lefty Manny Parra had a good chance to be an very effective, even excellent, major league pitcher. He did have a decent rookie season in 2008, but his '09 season was a disaster and 2010 hasn't been great either. What is going on here, and does he have a chance to fulfill his original potential?

Manny Parra was drafted by the Milwaukee Brewers in the 26^th round in 2001, out of American River Junior College in California. He signed as a draft-and-follow in the spring of '02, then went to Ogden in the Pioneer League and posted a 51/10 K/BB with a 3.21 ERA in 48 innings, though he did allow 59 hits. The high hit rate was notable because he threw 92-95 MPH, and his curveball and slider were both rated as plus pitches. Combine that with good control, and there was no obvious reason for him to give up that many hits. I felt it was a small sample fluke, and gave him a Grade C+ in the 2003 book, writing that Parra "could be one of the big names in A-ball in 2003."

Development of his changeup pushed Parra to greater success in 2003: 11-2, 2.73 ERA with a 117/24 K/BB in 139 innings for Low-A Beloit, 127 hits allowed. His K/BB ratio was outstanding, while his K/IP and H/IP were safely better than average for the Midwest League context. He missed the last three weeks of the season with a "tired arm," but it wasn't expected to be a major problem. I gave him a Grade B+ in the '04 book, and rated him as the Number 23 pitching prospect in baseball.

Parra moved up to the pitching hellhole of High Desert in 2004. The bad news: shoulder soreness limited him to just 67 innings pitched. The good news: he pitched well in those 67 innings, posting a 3.48 ERA with a 64/19 K/BB, excellent numbers for High Desert. I was impressed with this and scouting reports remained very positive, 90-94 MPH, plus curveball, decent slider, decent changeup, good command. I lowered his rating slightly to a Grade B in the '05 book, writing "where there is sore shoulder smoke, there is often torn labrum fire."

Parra reported to Double-A Huntsville to begin 2005. He posted a 3.96 ERA with a 86/21 K/BB in 91 innings, but gave up 111 hits and showed reduced velocity, down to 88-90 MPH. His shoulder began bugging him again and he ended up having surgery to repair a frayed labrum. I gave him a Grade C+ in the '06 book, "with higher upside if his arm is OK." Post-surgery reports were positive, but I wanted to see the proof.

Following rehab, Parra went to Brevard County in the Florida State League to begin 2006, posting a 2.96 ERA with a 61/32 K/BB in 55 innings, 47 hits. He moved back up to Huntsville for six starts and performed quite well: 2.87 ERA, 29/8 K/BB in 31 innings, 26 hits. He showed no diminution in command, but his fastball was still just 88-90 MPH for most of the season. He added a splitter to give the hitters another look to go with the curveball and changeup, dropping the slider. I kept him at a Grade C+ in the 2007 book due to the diminished velocity, but wrote that "if he can stay healthy he may surprise us."

He did, and he did. Parra got his velocity back in 2007, hitting 93-94 MPH again while maintaining his secondary pitches and command. This resulted in a 2.68 ERA with a 81/26 K/BB in 81 innings for Huntsville, then a 1.73 ERA with a 25/7 K/BB in 26 innings for Triple-A Nashville. He looked good in late season action with the Brewers, posting a 3.76 ERA with a 26/12 K/BB in 26 innings, allowing 25 hits. I gave him a Grade B+ in the 2008 book, stating he was a darkhorse Rookie of the Year candidate. I ranked him Number 14 on the pitching prospect list.

As you know, Parra had a decent rookie season, going 10-8, 4.39 in 166 innings with a 147/75 K/BB, but giving up 181 hits. In 2009 he somehow went 11-11 but with a 6.36 ERA, 179 hits in 140 innings, and a ERA+ of 63. Both his strikeout and walk ratios slipped, down to 116/77. This year he has been almost exactly mid-way between his '08 and '09 numbers: 5.33 ERA, 79/38 K/BB in 81 innings, 100 hits, with an increasing strikeout rate at least. He now has a career ERA of 5.20 in 413 innings, allowing 485 hits with a 368/202 K/BB and an ERA+ of 79. Hardly what was expected.

So what's going on? He's still throwing 90-95 MPH, so it is not a problem with velocity. He has a wide arsenal of pitches, still using a curveball, changeup, splitter, and slider once again, although he's not using the slider nearly as often this season and is relying more on the splitter. The ERAs and hit rates have been ugly, although his FIP and xFIP marks have been much better at 4.41 and 4.21 in his career.

This Fangraphs article from Dave Golebiewski was written in December and thus does not include 2010 data, but it is still interesting, using Pitch F/X to explore the theory of scouts that Parra throws too many "fat" pitches that hitters tee off on.

The theory seems plausible to me. Parra's component ratios indicate a pitcher with greater potential than he's shown so far. If the "fat pitch" theory is accurate, that should be a correctable problem with a better mental approach. A change of scenery to a different organization might help, too. Parra turns 28 in October and seems rather old to be a "breakout" candidate, but I still expect him to have some good seasons eventually.

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Morning Update and Suggestion Thread

Date: Tue, Jul 27, 2010

I will have a Manny Parra piece tonight, Aubrey Huff and minor league notes tomorrow, and a Smackdown on Thursday. Make more suggestions in this thread.

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Minor League Notes, July 26, 2010

Date: Mon, Jul 26, 2010

Minor League Notes, July 26, 2010

**A couple of people have asked lately for my take on Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Kenley Jansen, just promoted to the majors a few days ago. He's looked great in his first two major league games; two innings, zero hits, zero runs, zero walks, four strikeouts. His minor league numbers before his promotion were tremendous: since moving up to Double-A, he threw 27 innings for Chattanooga, with a 50/17 K/BB and just 14 hits allowed. The walks were higher than ideal, but his K/IP and H/IP ratios were exceptionally good, providing statistical confirmation of the stuff seen by scouts: 94-98 MPH fastball, good slider. The development of his secondary pitch has been notable this year; it was pretty raw last season, understandable since last year was his first year on the mound. Jansen's rise has been very rapid, and sometimes guys like this take a big step back just as quickly. I gave him a C+ in the book and would raise that to at least a Grade B now, maybe a B+.

**Another reader asks me about New York Mets outfield prospect Sean Ratliff, currently hitting .340/.372/.614 in 37 games for Double-A Binghamton. He'd hit .275/.331/.432 in 57 games for Class A St. Lucie before his promotion in June, and the reader wonders if his superior performance at Binghamton is a breakout. Ratliff was a fourth round pick in 2008 out of Stanford. The book on him in college and the low minors: excellent power potential from the left side, but hyper-aggressive at the plate and unable to handle good breaking stuff. He fanned 141 times in 496 at-bats last year in A-ball, with just 31 walks, stats which fit the scouting report perfectly. Despite the .340 mark in Double-A this year, his BB/K remains unimpressive at 7/33 at Binghamton, 24/99 overall on the season in 375 at-bats. On paper at least, it looks to me like he's getting lucky right now with the BABIP. That said, Ratliff has solid tools, including a plus throwing arm and decent running speed. He doesn't have to become a walk machine, but even a marginal improvement in his pitch selection could go a long way towards making him successful.

**With Alberto Callaspo shipped off to Anaheim and Alex Gordon definitely an outfielder, Mike Moustakas is the front runner to open 2011 as the Royals third baseman. He's off to a cold start his first two weeks at Omaha, hitting .220/.231/.380 in his first 13 games. He's shown some pop with two doubles and two homers, but his plate discipline has been dismal with one walk and nine strikeouts so far. Sample size is an issue of course, but check out the platoon split: 2-for-22 against lefties (.091), 9-for-28 (.321) with all of his extra base hits against right-handers. "A little overmatched right now" is what I've heard from a PCL source. I hope to get to see him play in person sometime in August.

**One of my favorite sleeper players entering 2010 was Carlos Ramirez, a catcher drafted by the Angels out of Arizona State last year in the eighth round. He got off to a very slow start this season, making it look like the gaudy numbers he put up last year in the Pioneer League (.376/.500/.638) were a thin air illusion. He hit just .226 in April and .117 in May. But he's been much more effective the last few weeks, hitting .375/.462/.661 in his last 17 games. He's maintained fair plate discipline throughout his trials, and while his overall line at .232/.350/.394 isn't exciting, I still think he's a prospect. His defense helps. Although scouts don't like his pudgy body, he's thrown out 42% of runners this year, has given up just three passed balls and four errors in 58 games, and has participated in 11 double plays, all very good numbers for a catcher at this level.

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Radio Appearance

Date: Mon, Jul 26, 2010

I will be on Lone Star Ball Radio tonight about 8:30 central. Check the details here.

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Prospect Retro: Hank Blalock

Date: Mon, Jul 26, 2010

More photos » Tony Gutierrez - AP

Hank Blalock breaks his bat on a ground out against Oakland Athletics pitcher Dallas Braden in the first inning of a baseball game in Arlington, Texas, Sunday, May 31, 2009. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

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Prospect Retro: Hank Blalock

Hank Blalock has been one of the more enigmatic players of the last decade. After excellent freshman (.300/.350/.522 at age 22) and sophomore (.276/.355/.500) seasons in '03 and '04, he entered a stagnant phase, got injured and missed most of 2007 and 2008 with thoracic outlet syndrome and a hamstring injury, (though he hit well both seasons when on the field), then lost command of the strike zone (and his job) in 2009. This year he found himself in Triple-A (hitting .349/.405/.505 for Durham), but couldn't get the bat going in Tampa and was released earlier this month. Seven years ago, this is not exactly where anyone thought this guy would be at age 29.

Hank Blalock was drafted in the third round by the Texas Rangers in 1999, out of high school in San Diego. Pre-draft scouting opinion focused on a strong bat, but there were questions about his glove at third base, and he had a Cal State Fulleton scholarship. He ended up signing with the Rangers, then went to rookie ball and hit .361/.428/.560 in 51 games, with a 23/23 BB/K in 191 at-bats, winning the Gulf Coast League batting title. I was impressed enough to put him in my 2000 book, unusual since I didn't write about many rookie ball guys in the old STATS books due to space limitations. Not only that, I gave him a Grade B+, writing that he might develop into a George Brett-class hitter. "Yes, I know what I'm saying," I wrote, "but I have a great feeling about this one." A month after the book came out in the spring of 2000, I talked with a major league GM who told me that Blalock's makeup was exceptional, and that he was the steal of the draft, although the GM thought the Brett comp was overdone.

Blalock went to Savannah in the Sally League in 2000, hitting .299/.373/.428. He hit just 10 homers, but knocked 32 doubles, and showed exceptional plate discipline, with a 62/53 BB/K ratio. He also stole 31 bases in 39 attempts, and led the league in fielding percentage at third base. I gave him another Grade B+, and wrote that while he might not turn into George Brett, "I would be very surprised if Blalock doesn't turn into an excellent player."

Blalock began 2001 with Charlotte in the Florida State League, hitting .380/.437/.557 for an OPS+ of 43 percent. Promoted to Double-A Tulsa at mid-season, he remained hot with a .327/.413/.544 mark. He combined for 37 doubles, 18 homers, 65 walks, and 69 strikeouts in 509 at-bats. He continued to draw good reviews for his defense and work ethic. I gave him a Grade A in the 2002 book, writing "if he isn't a Grade A prospect, I don't know who is." I rated him as the best prospect in baseball, without hesitation.

He began 2002 in the majors but struggled, then was sent down to Triple-A Oklahoma, hitting .307/.363/.457 in 95 games. His final major league season numbers were .211/.306/.327 mark in 49 games, moving past rookie eligibility with 147 at-bats. But he was just 21, and no one was really worried about his struggles. His first full season in '03 resulted in the .300/.350/.522 mark, and given a normal growth curve, stardom looked assured.

Of course, it didn't turn out that way.

What happened here? There is steroid speculation, of course, given the sharp dropoff in his performance in '05 and '06, although he hit just fine in '07 and '08. From what I saw when he was with Texas, he seemed to be swinging from the heels much more than when he was in the minors. When I saw him in Double-A and Triple-A, he hit the ball to all fields and didn't strike out excessively, posting excellent BB/K/AB ratios in his minor league career. But in the majors his BB/K deteriorated. Rangers fans who got to see him play every day during the decade might have better insights, but the impression I got was of a player who had changed his approach and was selling out to hit for more power. He certainly looked that way in 2009, hitting 25 homers in 123 games but with a horrid 26/108 BB/K, much worse than anything expected when he was a prospect.

Blalock is a free agent now, but there is still a chance he could rebuild his career. He certainly didn't turn into George Brett, but it made sense to me at the time, and I don't regret rating him as highly as I did.

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Sunday Night Update

Date: Sun, Jul 25, 2010

Sorry about the lack of fresh contentin the last few days. I was caught up in some family obligations that cut into most work time, and I wanted to finish the AQA thread when I did have time to write. Someday I will take an actual vacation (it has been six years since we've had an actual vacation) or at least a few real days away from the computer. I'm in my summer burnout phase, and my mind is kind of slogging.

Tomorrow I will have a prospect retro on Hank Blalock for you in the morning, then minor league notes in the afternoon/evening. I also will do retros this week on Manny Parra and Aubrey Huff (all three are by request), more minor league notes, and a Prospect Smackdown of some kind.

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UPDATE

Date: Thu, Jul 22, 2010

I got about twice as many questions as I expected in the AQA thread. I will answer them all, but it will be my main work focus until it is done. I have some family matters to attend to Saturday, so it might be Sunday before we get non AQA stuff written. Thanks for the great response on the thread.

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AQA Evening Thread

Date: Wed, Jul 21, 2010

Per reader request, here is an evening All Questions Answered Thread. I will keep this open through tomorrow morning and will work on the questions tonight and tomorrow.

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2010 Supplemental First Round Update

Date: Wed, Jul 21, 2010

2010 Supplemental First Round Update

Per reader request, here is an update on supplemental first round picks who have signed. As with the first rounders yesterday, the sample sizes are small and conclusions are dangerous to draw at this stage, but the information is provided for your convenience.

Mike Kvasnicka, 3B, Astros: Hitting .179/.276/.264 in 29 games for Tri-City in the New York-Penn League, 15 walks, 23 strikeouts in 106 at-bats. Splitting time between third base, catcher, and outfield, data set too small to draw conclusions at any position. I wonder if all the position switching could be impacting his hitting; it would be interesting to see a breakdown of how he's hitting when playing each position, but I don't have that data.

Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Blue Jays: Pitched in one game so far for GCL Jays, 1.2 innings, three hits, two runs, two strikeouts. Strikeouts are nice to see. At this point he's just getting used to pro ball.

Matt Lipka, SS, Braves: Hitting .333/.394/.411 in 22 games for the GCL Braves, eight steals in 10 attempts, eight walks, seven strikeouts in 90 at-bats. Impressive hitting so far, not much isolated power, but lots of speed and an even BB/K ratio. Error-prone on defense so far, eight miscues in 19 games.

Bryce Brentz, OF, Red Sox: Hitting .150/.224/.257 in 30 games in the New York-Penn League, 10 walks, 38 strikeouts in 113 at-bats. This is pretty ugly; serious problems with plate discipline and contact so far against professional pitching. Too early to panic...but some concern is warranted.

Taylor Lindsey, SS, Angels: Hitting .253/.269/.347 in 16 games for the AZL Angels, two walks, 15 strikeouts in 75 at-bats. I hate the BB/K ratio. He's stolen five bases in six attempts, which is good, but the bat looks pretty raw on paper at least. Has switched over to second base with decent results thus far.

Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Blue Jays: Four innings so far for the GCL Jays, four hits, one run, one walk, two strikeouts. 8.00 GO/AO ratio is interesting even in such a small sample size.

Ryan Bolden, OF, Angels: .145/.266/.218 in 16 games for the AZL Angels, six walks, 31 strikeouts in 55 at-bats. I know it is rookie ball and just 16 games. But....31 strikeouts in 55 at-bats? That's beyond ugly. Bolden clearly has a huge amount of work to do bringing his bat up to professional standards. Sort of takes raw tools to an extreme.

Asher Wojciechowski, RHP, Blue Jays: 12 innings for Auburn in the New York-Penn League, 11/4 K/BB, six hits, one run. Impressive performance in a small sample. He hasn't pitched since July 2^nd but he's just been shut down to limit his innings after a large college workload, no injury involved.

Taijuan Walker, RHP, Mariners: Four innings for the AZL Mariners, one hit, two unearned runs, two walks, six strikeouts. Miniscule sample but nothing to complain about.

Mike Olt, 3B, Rangers: Hitting .288/.395/.490 in 28 games for Spokane in the Northwest League, 17 walks, 27 strikeouts in 104 at-bats. Quite solid numbers, though not spectacular. High walk rate, but strikeouts also high. Defense at third OK, error rate higher than ideal but sample is small.

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Prospect Retro: Carl Pavano

Date: Tue, Jul 20, 2010

More photos » Paul Battaglia - AP

Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Carl Pavano (AP Photo/Paul Battaglia)

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Prospect Retro: Carl Pavano

Per reader request, here is a Prospect Retro on veteran starting pitcher Carl Pavano, who was one of the best prospects in baseball 15 years ago.

Carl Pavano was drafted by the Boston Red Sox in the 13^th round of the 1994 draft, out of high school in Southington, Connecticut. He performed excellently in rookie ball, posting a 1.84 ERA with a 47/7 K/BB in 44 innings for the GCL Red Sox, showing superb command. I was working as Bill James' office assistant back then and wasn't writing a prospect book, but a similar guy nowadays, a cold-weatherprep armwith decent stuff and excellent control in rookie ball would get a Grade C+ grade from me.

Pavano moved up to the Midwest League for 1995, posting a 3.44 ERA and a 138/52 K/BB in 141 innings for Michigan, with 118 hits allowed. His fastball was into the low 90s now, and he also showed a good breaking ball and improving changeup. His component ratios were all better than context, and I gave him a Grade B- in my first book, the 1996 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook, noting that Pavano had a "good mix of performance, youth, and talent, and should be watched."

After an excellent spring training, Pavano jumped up to Double-A in 1996 at the age of 20, going 16-5, 2.63 with a 146/47 K/BB in 185 innings, 154 hits allowed. That's a lot of innings for a 20 year old, but there was less attention paid to pitch counts and workload 14 years ago. Pavano's statistical performance was excellent, and scouts gave his slider and changeup above average marks, also liking his solid command of his 90-92 MPH fastball. He was rated the Number Five prospect in the Eastern League by Baseball America, behind Vlad Guerrero, Scott Rolen, Jamey Wright, and Luis Castillo. I was highly impressed with him, giving him a Grade B+ and ranking him as the Number Four pitching prospect in baseball.

1997 got off to a slow start; he missed the first few weeks of the season with biceps tendinitis. Once he took the mound in May, he continued rolling along at Triple-A Pawtucket in 1997, going 11-6, 3.12 with a 147/34 K/BB in 162 innings, 148 hits. His fastball was up to 94 MPH, he developed a good curve to go with his slider, and his changeup continued to improve. He was sent over the border to Montreal in the Pedro Martinez trade, and was expected to be the young ace of the Expos staff for 1998. I gave him a Grade A- and rated him as the Number One pitching prospect in baseball entering '98, though I didn't give him a straight A due to concerns about his minor league workload and resultant injury risk.

Pavano had a decent rookie year for the Expos (4.21 ERA, 83/43 K/BB in 135 innings, 130 hits), but his pitching time was limited to 23 starts by injuries. Indeed, continued shoulder and elbow problems plagued him for years. He wasn't a bad pitcher when not in pain; indeed, he was quite good in 15 starts for the Expos in 2000 (3.06 ERA, 64/34 K/BB in 97 innings), but he just couldn't stay healthy, and he lost velocity on his fastball. His arm finally stabilized enough for him to make 32 starts for the Florida Marlins in 2003 and 31 more in 2004, going 18-8, 3.00 in the latter season and earning a big free agent contact with the Yankees for 2005.

As you know, this was one of the biggest contract busts in history; Pavano's entire New York career was dominated by injuries (including Tommy John surgery in 2007) and ineffective pitching when he did take the mound. His mental toughness was questioned and he became unpopular in the clubhouse. Getting out of New York and over to Cleveland in 2009 was a relief to everyone involved.

He didn't pitch much better in Cleveland, but a trade to Minnesota last summer revived his career. He's now made 31 starts for the Twins, going 16-10, 3.89 with a 136/34 K/BB ratio in 208 innings, 206 hits allowed, thriving in the lower-pressure media environment and with a good team behind him that doesn't expect him to be something he's not.

Overall, Pavano has been an average pitcher: 4.35 ERA, ERA+ of 98 in 1417 innings, 98-84 record, 916/358 K/BB ratio. He's been awful when struggling with injuries, but during his relatively healthy seasons (1998, 2000, 2003, 2004, 2009, 2010) he's actually been quite effective, if not quite the genuine ace originally envisioned.

There is little doubt in my mind that Pavano would have had a much more successful career if he'd avoided injuries, though you can say that about a lot of pitchers. Any pitcher can get hurt, and drawing a direct line of causality is difficult, but it is hard not to think that Pavano's heavy workload in the Red Sox minor league system in 1996 and 1997 contributed to his problems.

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Minor League Notes, July 20, 2010

Date: Tue, Jul 20, 2010

Here is a look at how 2010 draft picks who have signed are performing so far. Sample size considerations should keep both ecstasy and despair to a minimum, but I thought an update seemed like a good idea.

Christian Colon, SS, Royals: Assigned to the Carolina League, he's hitting .238/.314/.365 with four walks and 11 strikeouts in 63 at-bats for Wilmington. Defense has been so-so so far, with a .930 fielding percentage and a mediocre range factor, again keep in mind that sample size and minor league conditions prevent that from really meaning anything yet. I'd like to see the hitting pick up a bit, and I think it will. I'm not one to cut the Royals much slack, but I still think this was a good draft pick.

Chris Sale, LHP, White Sox: Sale started off with Winston-Salem in the Carolina League, pitching four relief innings with a 4/2 K/BB, three hits, and two runs allowed. He was promoted to Triple-A Charlotte a few days ago and has pitched 1.2 innings so far, fanning four with one walk. I don't think most non-White Sox fans realize he's in Triple-A already, and buzz from Chicago is that he could see the majors later this year.

Jake Skole, OF, Rangers: Skole started off in the Arizona Rookie League, where he went 8-for-28 (.286) with two doubles, five walks, five strikeouts, and three steals. This was enough for the Rangers to move him up to short-season A-ball with Spokane, where he has struggled against older competition, hitting .228/.308/.281 in 15 games, with 19 strikeouts in 57 at-bats. Given his age at just 18, it is not a surprise that he's having some trouble at this level, playing a lot of guys coming out of college programs.

Hayden Simpson, RHP, Cubs: He's signed but hasn't pitched yet, reportedly ill with some sort of virus and on the AZL Cubs disabled list.

Mike Foltynewicz, RHP, Astros: On a strict pitch count for the Greenville Astros in the Appalachian League, has made four starts but with just 8.2 innings pitched, eight strikeouts, five walks, six runs. I report I have indicates his stuff has looked quite impressive but his command has been inconsistent, which is exactly what the numbers indicate and what you'd expect from a cold-weather high school guy.

Kolbrin Vitek, 3B, Red Sox: .287/.397.417 in 30 games for Lowell in the New York-Penn League, 18 walks, 33 strikeouts in 108 at-bats, eight steals in nine attempts. Main worry here is the high strikeout rate so far, but he's also drawing some walks and scouting comment has been pretty positive. He's split his 30 games evenly between third base and DH. At the hot corner he's been very error-prone, with a horrid .826 fielding percentage to this point.

Kellin Deglan, C, Rangers: .286/.355/.357 so far in 10 games for the AZL Rangers, two walks, seven strikeouts. Not much power yet. Has performed well defensively so far, just one passed ball thus far, no errors, has thrown out 50% of runners trying to steal.

Jesse Biddle, LHP, Phillies: Local lefty has been hit pretty hard so far in rookie ball, 13 innings, 17 hits, 15 runs, six walks...but he's fanned 13, which is good. Sample size precludes any panic at this point and the Ks are good to see, but he doesn't look to be on the fast track at this stage, hardly unexpected given cold-weather background.

Cam Bedrosian, RHP, Angels: Has pitched just one inning in the Arizona Rookie League so far, giving up four hits and four runs.

Chevez Clarke, OF, Angels: Hitting .238/.304/.381 in nine games in the Arizona Rookie League, with two walks and 15 strikeouts in 42 at-bats. Numbers match scouting reports very closely: he has significant problems with command of the strike zone and contact. The physical tools are here but he needs a lot of polish and has a high risk of failure.

Justin O'Conner, C, Rays: Struggling so far, .155/.261/.259 with 18 strikeouts in 58 at-bats for the GCL Rays. One positive is that he's drawn nine walks. His defense has been rough, too: in 10 games he's made three errors, coughed up five passed balls, and has caught just one runner while allowing 14 steals. As with everyone else on this list, the sample is tiny and there is no reason for panic yet, but his skills look rougher than expected.

Cito Culver, SS, Yankees: .250/.325/.319 in 20 games for the GCL Yankees, nine walks, 14 strikeouts in 72 at-bats. Nothing spectacular yet but at least he's drawn some walks. Five errors in 17 games at shortstop so far, .940 fielding percentage, range looks OK statistically so far, granted minor league statistical limitations.

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Prospect Retro: R.A. Dickey

Date: Mon, Jul 19, 2010

More photos » Tony Dejak - AP

about 1 month ago: New York Mets' R.A. Dickey works against the Cleveland Indians in the first inning of a baseball game on, Thursday, June 17, 2010, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Tony Dejak)

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Prospect Retro: R.A. Dickey

One of the bright spots for the New York Mets this year has been veteran R.A. Dickey. Promoted from Triple-A in May, he's 6-3, 2.63 in 11 starts with a 51/20 K/BB ratio in 72 innings, the best pitching at the major league level in his career thus far. Dickey had an unusual and unique path as a prospect, and I've had several requests in recent weeks to look at his career.

R.A Dickey was drafted in the first round in 1996, from the University of Tennessee. He used a 90 MPH fastball, a strong breaking ball, and a funky delivery to go 9-4, 2.76 with a 137/33 K/BB ratio in 127 innings for the Volunteers. The Rangers offered him a $850,000 bonus. . .but rescinded the offer after team doctors discovered that Dickey didn't have an ulnar collateral ligament in his throwing elbow. The ligament wasn't damaged; it simply wasn't there, and it was possible that he was born without one. The condition was unprecedented for a professional pitcher. The (reportedly guilt-ridden) Rangers front office still offered to sign him, but cut their bonus offer back to $75,000, which Dickey accepted in August, knowing that no one would draft him if he reentered the pool in '97.

There was some talk of Dickey having Tommy John surgery, but the procedure was never performed. Instead, he pitched 36 innings for Class A Charlotte in '97, posting an ugly 6.75 ERA after giving up 51 hits, though his 32/12 K/BB wasn't bad. He was shut down at midseason and had surgery to remove bone chips from the elbow, but they didn't touch the ligament issue. I put him in the '98 book, but with the notation that a grade was somewhat pointless at that point. There were rumors that he was going to be released.

He avoided gettingthe axe, however, then performed much better in a return engagement at Charlotte in '98, saving 38 games, posting a 3.30 ERA with a 53/22 K/BB in 60 innings, 58 hits. His fastball was just 86-88 MPH, but his funky delivery, good breaking ball, newly-developed forkball, and bulldog demeanor impressed observers. I gave him a Grade C in the '99 book.

Moved up to Double-A Tulsa for 1999, Dickey was used as both a starter and reliever, making 11 starts but also picking up 10 saves in 25 relief outings, posting a 4.55 ERA. His K/BB was unimpressive at 59/40 and he showed just mediocre velocity, buthis personality and work ethiccontinued to draw attention. He pitched 23 innings for Triple-A Oklahoma, with a 17/7 K/BB and a 4.37 ERA. I gave him a Grade C in the 2000 book, writing "making an objective assessment, he's just a Grade C prospect, though I think he eventually might have a good year or two in the majors."

Dickey spent all of 2000 with Oklahoma, posting a 4.49 ERA and an 85/65 K/BB in 158 innings, 167 hits, showing an admirable ability to eat innings but not dominating anyone. In 2001 he improved with a 3.75 ERA and a 120/45 K/BB in 163 innings; his fastball ticked up a notch back into the lower 90s at times, although this wasn't consistent and he still relied mostly on junk offerings and deception. He got into 12 innings for the Rangers, allowing 13 hits and nine runs. He still rated as a Grade C.

He had another decent season for Oklahoma in '02 (4.09 ERA, 109/47 K/BB in 154 innings) but didn't get into major league action. That changed in '03, the Rangers using him as a swingman that season and in '04 with mediocre results, ERAs over 5.00 with erratic peripherals. In 2005 he began using a knuckleball, and he's spent the last five years refining it, pitching for the Rangers, Mariners, Twins, and now the Mets.

Dickey's major league career: 28-31, 5.04, 322/197 K/BB in 515 innings, 590 hits, ERA+ 92, below average obviously, although his pitching this year is a nice taste of success for him. Keep in mind that in the summer of 1996 it looked like Dickey may never even pitch professionally. He never gave up, showing great perseveranceand making a career for himself. Even ifhe never pitches another major league inning, his career has to be considered a success given the circumstances.

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