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Crashburn Alley: Baer: The End to the Jayson Werth Era
Date: Mon, Sep 6, 2010
Werth®: Find a Wealth Advisor or Attorney. ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick, via Twitter, reported that Jayson Werth broke up with agent Jeff Borris of the Beverly Hills Sports Council, thus putting the right fielder in the market for new representation. On its face, it seems like boring news as players switch agents and it never really makes a difference. However, Werth is expected to be one of the premier players on the market after the 2010 season ends along with Carl Crawford currently with the Tampa Bay Rays. ...The only logical conclusion here is that Werth’s time in Philadelphia is running out. The front office knows this. Werth is likely very aware of this and it is very likely the reason why he decided to seek new representation in early September. Would a player intent on staying put do that? Consider that he was the subject of a baseless salacious rumor involving extra-marital affairs and baseless character assassination by some in the Philadelphia sports media. He also bore the brunt of a newfound reputation as an unclutch player and an irritable shut-in. No, we don’t know for sure that Werth’s days as a Phillie are ending soon. We are not privy to the discussions between Werth and the Phillies’ front office. Very little has been reported about this matter outside of Werth’s new search for representation. However, looking at all of the little contextual clues, we can conclude rather confidently that he’s not coming back after the season regardless of how much success the team enjoys in October.
Manley: Albert Pujols vs Ted Williams
Date: Mon, Sep 6, 2010
What is interesting about this to me is that Pujols could be seen as the better OPS player while Williams the better PP player. What’s the difference? Part of it is because Williams was disproportionately higher by on-base percentage as compared to slugging average. Remember OPS just adds those two. As I’ve discussed before, a better formula than OPS is GPA which takes OPB times 1.8 and THEN adds it to slugging. If I did that, Williams GPA would be at least as good as Pujols. The primary reason that is true is because Williams averaged 143 walks per 162 games compared to only 94 for Pujols. Walks are factored into both OPS and PP, but they disproportionately hurt OPS – which is the primary criticism of it. In all fairness, using GPA instead of OPS, Williams would be ahead of Pujols in almost all 20 of the categories above – Year #9 being the primary exception. Even so, to some degree it is splitting hairs. ...It might be argued that in Williams’ era there were fewer quality players and so the very best were able to exploit their opponents to a greater degree. An more apparent example might be Wilt Chamberlain. Even if NBA teams scored at the same rate today as they did in the 1960’s, nobody would come close to averaging 50.4 points per game as Wilt did in 1962. The reason why is likely because when a sport is young and the opportunities few, there will be a far greater disparity between the good and the bad players. Sometime I will do an analysis of that, but for now… just accept it as a fact of life. Not on your Bucky Bockhorns!
McDonald: Bautista proves stat nerds wrong
Date: Mon, Sep 6, 2010
Delicious nuggets on nerds gone sour! Even the most astute baseball analysts have been caught looking by Bautista’s breakout season. Based on past performance and normal career progression, Sabermetrician emeritus Bill James reasonably projected Bautista at 13 home runs and a .409 slugging percentage for 2010. Baseball Think Factory’s Dan Szymborski had Bautista at 14 home runs and a .389 slugging percentage. Tom Tango at tangotiger.net predicted 14 home runs and a .413 slugging percentage. BaseballGuru.com called for 10 home runs and a .406 slugging percentage. Sean Smith, creator of the CHONE projection system, prognosticated 15 home runs and a .383 slugging percentage. All told, members of the baseball projectionists union were completely consistent in their expectations for Bautista in 2010. They were also completely wrong. About the only analyst who saw anything in the statistical entrails was John Dewan of ACTA sports. At the end of March, he examined spring training performances and noticed Bautista batting .439 with five home runs in 57 at bats. Based on those skimpy data, he placed Bautista at the top of a list of possible breakout players for the upcoming season. (Spring training being the crude indicator it is, Dewan also picked the likes of John Bowker and Delwyn Young of the Pirates. Bowker is currently batting .207 with three home runs, Young .249 with six homers.)
NL Wildcard race: September 5, 2010
Date: Sun, Sep 5, 2010
PHI 78-59 [4-1 in SEPT] SFG 76-61 [3-1 in SEPT] (2 GB) MLB.com: Phils fall short in bid for sweep of Brewers MLB.com: [Jonathan] Sanchez’s gem puts NL West lead in reach
Seattle Times: [Felix] Hernandez throws 8 shutout innings
Date: Sun, Sep 5, 2010
[Felix Hernandez] did it again Sunday as the Mariners blanked the Cleveland Indians 3-0 at Safeco Field in front of 22,621. “He’s been incredible,” Mariners designated hitter Russell Branyan said. “You can speculate on his numbers, what they would be if he got run support or what have you, but the brunt of it is he’s pitched his butt off all year. We just haven’t scored for him. But today we got a couple of runs for him and he went out there and shut another team out.” ... He went eight innings, giving up four hits and striking out nine. He fanned the final batter of the inning six times.
Mike Cameron on injury-shortened season: ‘I think I did pretty damn good’
Date: Sun, Sep 5, 2010
Yeah, but that zippo for one in SB’s was an absolute killer… Looking to make a good first impression in his inaugural year in Boston, Cameron played through serious pain in a constant effort to stay on the field. But he was never right. He looked slow on balls in the outfield from the first week on. Regardless, with the Red Sox short on outfielders, he played at half-strength or worse whenever he could. Cameron went through a pregame routine that befit an Olympic gymnast –– contorting and stretching imself in intricate ways to loosen his body up enough to play a decent center field at age 37. To tell the truth, he surprised himself somewhat. “If anything, looking back, what amazed me was to still be able to run out there and play center field and still run around a little bit,” Cameron said. “To set aside that [pain] threshold and still run around a little bit, and be considered as everyone says, ‘an old center fielder’ or ‘hurt,’ I think I did pretty damn good.” ...Cameron expects to be fine by Thanksgiving, and to begin baseball-related workouts soon after. “I’ve got plenty of time,” he said. “It’ll come. I’m looking forward to it, though. Looking forward to feeling pain-free and let the gates open. I can’t wait to go out. I’ll probably play spring training as hard as I’ve ever played in my life.” The surgery itself, Cameron said, was miserable. Afterward, a groggy Cameron picked up the phone to call his manager, Terry Francona. He wasn’t quite ready to talk –– and Francona said he was shocked by how bad his delirious outfielder sounded. “I’ve never heard somebody sound that bad. Then he called back [a day later] and he must have been aware of what he did,” Francona said.
Daugherty: Votto espouses Teddy Ballgame’s theories on hitting
Date: Sun, Sep 5, 2010
And coming from one of the knights of the keyboard, that’s pretty high praise. Joey Votto no longer needs the book Ted Williams wrote, called The Science of Hitting. In a year when he pursues a Triple Crown and an MVP trophy—and, mostly he would tell you, a World Series ring—Votto is making some science of his own. “A legend,’’ Votto says of Williams, the last man to hit .400, arguably the best hitter the game has produced. “Beyond a legend. He was mythic.’’ Votto still tracks down people he guesses might have seen Williams play. He has read everything written about Teddy Ballgame. He watches the old black-and-whites of Williams employing that big stride and long, graceful swing. He reads the bible. “The thesis of the book was, get a good pitch to hit, be quick, make sure your swing is prepared,’’ Votto says. It’s everything every hitter wants to do, but few are able. Votto, it seems, is among the few. ...Do you ever waste a swing?’’ I ask him. “Take a pitch off? I mean, even in batting practice?’’ “No, I don’t.’’ Care to elaborate? “I’ve made that mistake before and it’s cost me. You get a little older, you can’t waste swings. Your body can only handle so many. I don’t have the energy,’’ explains Votto, who is all of almost-27. “I think of baseball so much as my job. I just try to be efficient. I’m not here to mess around.’’
NL West race: September 5, 2010
Date: Sun, Sep 5, 2010
SDP 76-59 [0-4 in SEPT] SFG 76-61 [3-1 in SEPT] (1 GB) COL 72-64 [3-2 in SEPT] (4.5 GB) MLB.com: Slipping Padres drop 10th straight ballgame In an attempt to breathe new life into a suddenly reeling ballclub, the Padres turned to the music of Michael Jackson, which echoed through PETCO Park as each San Diego batter stepped to the plate. But even the upbeat tunes of the King of Pop couldn’t snap the Padres out of their recent funk. San Diego’s season-worst losing streak reached 10 games on Sunday, as the Padres were swept by the Rockies after dropping a 4-2 decision in front of a crowd of 23,250. MLB.com: [Jonathan] Sanchez’s gem puts NL West lead in reach [Jonat han] Sanchez actually pitched capably for the second start in a row, allowing three hits in seven shutout innings. And the Giants wholeheartedly embraced his performance, which furthered their bid for a postseason berth as they outlasted the Dodgers, 3-0. Juan Uribe homered for the second consecutive game to help San Francisco defeat Los Angeles for the seventh time in nine games and capture its third series in a row against its arch-rivals. MLB.com: Rockies aid playoff climb by sweeping Padres
AL Central race: September 5, 2010
Date: Sun, Sep 5, 2010
MIN 80-57 [4-1 in SEPT] CHW 76-60 [4-0 in SEPT] (3.5 GB) MLB.com: Twins continue home mastery of Rangers [Nick Blackburn] delivered another strong outing on Sunday afternoon, pitched seven solid innings and giving up two runs on six hits in a 6-5 victory over the Rangers at Target Field. MLB.com: Improbable rally lifts White Sox in Boston Down to their last out in the ninth inning and trailing by two, the White Sox rallied for four runs to claim a 7-5 victory Sunday before 37,570 at Fenway Park. And the White Sox did it primarily against Boston closer Jonathan Papelbon, who left with his head hung low and near 50 pitches
AL East race, September 5, 2010
Date: Sun, Sep 5, 2010
NYY 86-51 [4-1 in SEPT] TBR 83-53 [2-2 in SEPT] (2.5 GB) MLB.com: Long ball burdens Hughes as Yanks cooled Phil Hughes gave up three home runs as the Yankees’ eight-game winning streak came to an end on Sunday in a 7-3 loss to the Blue Jays. MLB.com: Four homers not enough for Rays against O’s Tampa Bay tied a season high with four homers in Sunday’s game against the Orioles. But it wasn’t good enough for a victory, as Baltimore’s four-run sixth inning proved to be enough to let the Orioles hang on for an 8-7 win over the Rays in front of 28,268 at Camden Yards.
NL East race: September 5, 2010
Date: Sun, Sep 5, 2010
ATL 79-58 [2-3 in SEPT] PHI 78-59 [4-1 in SEPT] (1 GB) MLB.com: Braves rally from big deficit, but fall in extras After producing a game-tying five-run sixth inning at Sun Life Stadium on Sunday afternoon, the Braves saw the Marlins complete a 7-6, 10-inning win with Scott Cousins’ walk-off single. MLB.com: Phils fall short in bid for sweep of Brewers Kyle Kendrick took the loss after he allowed five runs in just four innings of work, and former Phillies starter Randy Wolf baffled his former team over 6 2/3 innings, as Milwaukee Brewers beat Philadelphia, 6-2.
Passan: If Rasmus wants off Cardinals, Pujols says leave
Date: Sun, Sep 5, 2010
“If he doesn’t want to be here next year, we need to figure out a way to get him out of here and find somebody that wants to be here and play,” Pujols told Yahoo! Sports before Sunday’s game against the Reds. “That’s a reality. “That’ll show you right there a young player that doesn’t respect what he’s got,” he added. “He needs to find out the talent and ability that he has and pretty much keep his mouth shut and play the game. Let the organization make those decisions, not himself.” Something tells me not a lot of people are going to be taking Rasmus’ side over Albert in this one.
Hardball Talk: Report: Rasmus requested trade earlier this season
Date: Sun, Sep 5, 2010
Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has a bit of news that will add lighter fluid to the stack of rumors hinting at a “rift” between Cardinals manager Tony La Russa and 24-year-old outfielder Colby Rasmus. Strauss heard from sources that Rasmus requested a trade earlier this season because of “frustrations” ; with La Russa and his lack of everyday playing time. It’s not hard to believe. Ryan Ludwick, in fact, made a similar request just before he was traded to the Padres in late July and it’s beginning to look like we may have a scapegoat for what has been a horribly disappointing season in St. Louis: the skipper himself. UPDATE: La Russa has confirmed the report, according to B.J. Rains of FOX Sports Midwest, also saying that Rasmus requested a trade last season.
Griffin: Gaston tells Jays to play for pride
Date: Sun, Sep 5, 2010
Spoilers alert! Manager Cito Gaston called his first meeting of the year before Saturday’s game to let his team know they weren’t going to mail in the results for the final month. Pride of the Jays. His team had looked flat on Friday in support of Brandon Morrow, making his final start before being shut down. Face it, the optics were bad for the Jays, who are not mathematically eliminated — yet. If the front office could shut down one of their best starters, what signal did that send the team? On Saturday, the Jays showed more hustle and heart in a 7-5 loss, even if the outcome was the same. “It was just a reminder of how far they’ve come this year,” Gaston said of his three-minute closed-door session before BP. “They have showed a lot of heart and hustle. I certainly congratulated them on the way they played this year and the way they handled themselves through good times and bad times. Let’s finish hard, go home and be proud of what you’ve done this year.” ...“It’s just respect that you do that,” Gaston said. “Why would you play your second-string guys with no experience against Tampa, then turn around and play your best against New York. It wouldn’t be fair to the two Joes (Girardi and Maddon). I have a lot of respect for both of those guys, the Yankees organization, the Rays organization and for myself, too. I wouldn’t do that.”
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